Parsimonious Catchment and River Flow Modelling

It is increasingly the case that models are being developed as “evolving” products rather than one-off application tools, such that auditable modelling versus ad hoc treatment of models becomes a pivotal issue. Auditable modelling is particularly vital to “parsimonious modelling” aimed at meeting specific modelling requirements. This paper outlines various contributory factors and aims to seed proactively a research topic by inextricably linking value/risk management to parsimonious modelling. Value management in modelling may be implemented in terms of incorporating “enough detail” into a model so that the synergy among the constituent units of the model captures that of the real system. It is a problem of diminishing returns, since further reductions in the constituent units will create an unacceptable difference between the model and the real system; conversely, any further detail will add to the cost of modelling without returning any significant benefit. The paper also defines risk management in relation to modelling. It presents a qualitative framework for value/risk management towards parsimonious modelling by the categorisation of “modelling techniques” in terms of “control volume.”