Abstract

Pre-election polls are used to test the political landscape and predict election results. The relative weights for the state-level data from the 2006 U.S. senatorial races are considered based on the date on which the polls were conducted. Long- and short-memory weight functions are developed to specify the relative value of historical polling data. An optimal weight function is estimated by minimizing the discrepancy function between estimates from weighted polls and the election outcomes.

Degree

MS

College and Department

Physical and Mathematical Sciences; Statistics

Rights

http://lib.byu.edu/about/copyright/

Date Submitted

2008-04-23

Document Type

Selected Project

Handle

http://hdl.lib.byu.edu/1877/etd2378

Keywords

pre-election polling data, long- and short-memory weight functions

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