Can scoring models help microlenders in poor countries as much as they have helped credit-card lenders in rich countries? This paper presents a scorecard that predicts the probability that loans from a microlender in Bolivia will have arrears of 15 days or more. Although arrears in microfinance depend on many factors difficult to include in scorecards, the paper shows that inexpensive, simple-to-collect data does have some predictive power. In micro-finance, scoring will not replace loan officers, but it can flag high-risk cases and act as a cross-check on loan officers' judgment.
Mark Schreiner is a Senior Scholar in the Center for Social Development at Washington University in Saint Louis and a consultant with Microfinance Risk Management. He works to help the poor build assets via improved financial services. Website: http://www.microfinance.com
Journal of Microfinance
Issue and Volume
BYU ScholarsArchive Citation
"Scoring Arrears at a Microlender in Bolivia,"
Journal of Microfinance / ESR Review: Vol. 6
, Article 5.
Available at: http://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/esr/vol6/iss2/5